Android: 47%, iPhone: 46%

Discussion in 'iPhone' started by Michelle Steiner, Jan 9, 2012.

  1. It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.

    -- Michelle

    <http://seekingalpha.com/article/318349-apple-ios-market-share-up-from-26-to
    -43>

    According to a new report from research firm NPD, iOS’s U.S. market share
    (by sales) jumped from 26% in the third quarter of 2011 to 43% by October
    and November. Android, however, came out on top, with 47% market share
    during those two months, down from 60% in Q3.

    Says NPD, over the course of 2011, the smartphone battle saw iOS and
    Android distancing themselves from the competition, turning it into “a
    two-horse race.â€

    Overall, smartphone sales continue to grow, NPD says, and accounted for two
    out of every three handsets sold in October/November 2011. For comparison
    purposes, that’s up from 50% in Q4 2010.

    In addition, nine of the top ten phones sold in Oct/Nov are smartphones,
    with Samsung, HTC and Motorla each having at least one smartphone listed in
    NPD’s top ten. Apple’s phones are on the top of the list, with the iPhone
    4S in the number one spot and the iPhone 4 still doing well in the #2
    position.

    --
    Tea Party Patriots is to Patriotism as
    People's Democratic Republic is to Democracy.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Jan 9, 2012
    #1
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  2. Michelle Steiner

    JF Mezei Guest

    Michelle Steiner wrote:
    > It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.




    For now, one should not dismiss the Nokia/Microsoft phones that should
    be coming out this year.

    Since Nokia has bet its life on that marriage with Microsoft, it may go
    all out to try to regain some of its former glory/market share. If it
    pans out, Nokia may carve itself a big enough slice of the marlet.

    If it fizzles out, Nokia could go out of business, or perhaps quickly
    move to Android.


    So either way, Nokia could means bad news for Apple's market share,
    unless Nokia declares bankrupcy after its semi-marriage with Microsoft
    fails. (if it fails).


    The bigger question is what sort of long term market share should Apple
    expect to have ? 20% ? 15% ? 30% ? or will it be able to maintain itself
    above 40% ?
     
    JF Mezei, Jan 10, 2012
    #2
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  3. Michelle Steiner

    Chris Blunt Guest

    On Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:14:37 -0700, Michelle Steiner
    <> wrote:

    >It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.


    I hope not.

    I'd prefer to see an ongoing competitive market situation in which
    several players are able to thrive, rather than having one knock the
    others out and establish a dominant market position for themselves.

    Chris
     
    Chris Blunt, Jan 10, 2012
    #3
  4. Michelle Steiner

    Jon Ribbens Guest

    On 2012-01-10, Chris Blunt <> wrote:
    > On Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:14:37 -0700, Michelle Steiner
    ><> wrote:
    >
    >>It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.

    >
    > I hope not.
    >
    > I'd prefer to see an ongoing competitive market situation in which
    > several players are able to thrive, rather than having one knock the
    > others out and establish a dominant market position for themselves.


    Indeed; I think that the smartphone market so far has been a perfect
    example of free market competition working brilliantly. I wouldn't
    want any of the major players to "win".
     
    Jon Ribbens, Jan 10, 2012
    #4
  5. Michelle Steiner

    nospam Guest

    In article <>, Jon Ribbens
    <> wrote:

    > >>It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.

    > >
    > > I hope not.
    > >
    > > I'd prefer to see an ongoing competitive market situation in which
    > > several players are able to thrive, rather than having one knock the
    > > others out and establish a dominant market position for themselves.

    >
    > Indeed; I think that the smartphone market so far has been a perfect
    > example of free market competition working brilliantly. I wouldn't
    > want any of the major players to "win".


    two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
    it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.

    windows phone might manage a distant third. webos is all but dead and
    rim/blackberry is quickly headed in that direction. symbian, meego etc.
    are long forgotten.

    cameras are similar. nikon and canon are the two dominant manufacturers
    with roughly 80% share between the two and the remaining 20% is shared
    by sony, pentax, olympus, panasonic, leica, hassleblad, etc.
     
    nospam, Jan 10, 2012
    #5
  6. Michelle Steiner

    JF Mezei Guest

    nospam wrote:

    > two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
    > it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.



    I am not sure that Apple will remain dominant. Consider how quickly
    Android grew it could continue to grow and make Apple a niche market in
    a few years. Or both could remain near equals in market share. (which
    would be better from competition and innovation point of view).


    And again, don't dismiss Microsoft an RIM *yet*.


    Both are expected to have product renewall this year, and both are
    probably "make it or die" situation. So depending on how those two turn
    things around, things could become different.
     
    JF Mezei, Jan 10, 2012
    #6
  7. Michelle Steiner

    nospam Guest

    In article <4f0c96a4$0$5486$c3e8da3$>, JF
    Mezei <> wrote:

    > > two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
    > > it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.

    >
    > I am not sure that Apple will remain dominant. Consider how quickly
    > Android grew it could continue to grow and make Apple a niche market in
    > a few years. Or both could remain near equals in market share. (which
    > would be better from competition and innovation point of view).


    people seem to think it's going to be a repeat of windows and mac,
    where one has 90% share and the other has almost nothing. that's not
    likely to happen for a number of reasons. there's room for two players,
    just as there is with cameras and many other products.

    > And again, don't dismiss Microsoft an RIM *yet*.


    i heard that last year and the year before that. unless they can work
    miracles, the game is pretty much over.

    rim isn't dead *yet* because of the large existing install base but
    they are not doing particularly well. the playbook was a disaster and
    i've yet to meet anyone who really likes their blackberry. everyone i
    know who has a blackberry wants an iphone or android phone. that's not
    good.

    microsoft has a decent product but it's too little too late. they
    currently have a single digit market share and it's going to be nearly
    impossible to catch up to android or ios, let alone overtake either
    one. they'll probably be a distant 3rd in a 3 player game.

    > Both are expected to have product renewall this year, and both are
    > probably "make it or die" situation. So depending on how those two turn
    > things around, things could become different.


    they need a miracle. although that's not impossible, it's also not very
    likely.
     
    nospam, Jan 10, 2012
    #7
  8. Michelle Steiner

    salgud Guest

    On Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:50:58 -0500, JF Mezei wrote:

    > And again, don't dismiss Microsoft an RIM *yet*.


    Why not? M$ hasn't had a successful consumer product in 10 years. They've
    been so busy emulating Apple, which they're not, that they have no identity
    any more. Their CEO is a natural follower, not a leader.

    As to RIM, I seriously doubt they have the where-with-all to actually
    design a competitive smartphone. If they did, they would have done so by
    now. They just don't get it.

    Neither of these companies can innovate. Not a good thing in the modern
    cellphone market. We'll see in a few years if Apple can still innovate.
    I'll be happily surprised if they can.

    I predict that within 5 years, someone else, hitherto unknown, will come
    and blow them all out of the water.
     
    salgud, Jan 10, 2012
    #8
  9. In article <4f0c96a4$0$5486$c3e8da3$>,
    JF Mezei <> wrote:

    > > two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
    > > it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.

    >
    >
    > I am not sure that Apple will remain dominant. Consider how quickly
    > Android grew it could continue to grow and make Apple a niche market in
    > a few years.


    In the last quarter, the iPhone gained market share and Android lost market
    share, to the point that Android's market share was only one percent
    greater than the iPhone's.

    Considering how many phone manufacturers make Android phones and how many
    models of Android phones there are compared to iOS's one manufacturer and
    only three current models, that's quite impressive.

    --
    Tea Party Patriots is to Patriotism as
    People's Democratic Republic is to Democracy.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Jan 10, 2012
    #9
  10. Michelle Steiner

    JF Mezei Guest

    nospam wrote:

    > people seem to think it's going to be a repeat of windows and mac,
    > where one has 90% share and the other has almost nothing. that's not
    > likely to happen for a number of reasons.


    Apple opened the mass market for smart phones. It had a near monopoly.
    Now, as others are moving in, it is normal for Apple to lose market share.

    It is still to early to tell at what point Apple's market share will
    stabilize.


    If Apple's ahare goes down too much, it risks losing critical mass at
    which point, apps will move elsewhere (just like what happened to the
    Mac in the 1980s). Apple is nowhere near that point now. But what about
    3-5 years from now ?






    > rim isn't dead *yet* because of the large existing install base but
    > they are not doing particularly well.


    RIM is promising a totally new set of phones and OS this year. This is
    their last chance to revive the company, otherwise they will be
    relegated to running their proprietary servers to service existing
    customers (whose phones cannot do any data without those proprietary RIM
    servers).


    Nokia is also promising a totally new set of (windows) phones this year.
    It is also make or break for them. Back in the days of analogue phones,
    Nokia managed to oust Motorola from a "near monopoly" and it became the
    dominant player in the world. But Nokia seems to have inept maagement
    now, so the odds of them succeeding are not great. But there is still a
    chance.

    And don't discount Sony. Big picture: Apple is after Sony's business.
    Snoy is the one company who has understood convergence. Yet, they are
    the one company who had all the bits to make a truly integrated product
    line and failed to do so due to bad corporate managemenT/structure. But
    should they fix this, they are the ones who can tackle Apple head to head.

    Sony recently got full control over the mobile handset (they are going
    to be Sony handsets instead of Sony Ericsson). What if Sony leverages
    Android and makes a truly compelling product ?



    A year from now, things should get much clearer. It could very well
    turn out as a 3 way market with 30% of the market going to Mcrosoft and
    RIM. This would mean that Apple and Google would get 70% of the market.
    But consider the difference between a 35-35 split or a 30-40 split or
    25-34 split. It doesn't take much to et Apple into a niche player.

    I have my doubts on whether Apple can continue to have equal market
    share to a whole slew of major Android manufacturers such as Samsung,
    LG, HTC, Sony and perhaps even Motorola).
     
    JF Mezei, Jan 10, 2012
    #10
  11. Michelle Steiner

    JF Mezei Guest

    Michelle Steiner wrote:
    >
    > Considering how many phone manufacturers make Android phones and how many
    > models of Android phones there are compared to iOS's one manufacturer and
    > only three current models, that's quite impressive.



    Apple only has 1 current model. And 2 older models it still makes so
    they can be sold at lower price point. But the 3GS and 4 are not
    copetitive by today's standards.
     
    JF Mezei, Jan 10, 2012
    #11
  12. Michelle Steiner

    nospam Guest

    In article <4f0cb688$0$2084$c3e8da3$>, JF
    Mezei <> wrote:

    > > Considering how many phone manufacturers make Android phones and how many
    > > models of Android phones there are compared to iOS's one manufacturer and
    > > only three current models, that's quite impressive.

    >
    > Apple only has 1 current model. And 2 older models it still makes so
    > they can be sold at lower price point. But the 3GS and 4 are not
    > copetitive by today's standards.


    the 3gs arguably isn't, but it's also free. the iphone 4 is definitely
    competitive.
     
    nospam, Jan 10, 2012
    #12
  13. In article <4f0cb688$0$2084$c3e8da3$>,
    JF Mezei <> wrote:

    > > Considering how many phone manufacturers make Android phones and how
    > > many models of Android phones there are compared to iOS's one
    > > manufacturer and only three current models, that's quite impressive.

    >
    > Apple only has 1 current model. And 2 older models it still makes so
    > they can be sold at lower price point.


    They're being made and being sold; that makes them current.

    > But the 3GS and 4 are not copetitive by today's standards.


    People are buying them instead of competitors' models; that makes them
    competitive.

    Well, in the case of the 3GS, "buying" means getting them free with a
    contract.

    --
    Tea Party Patriots is to Patriotism as
    People's Democratic Republic is to Democracy.
     
    Michelle Steiner, Jan 10, 2012
    #13
  14. Michelle Steiner

    nospam Guest

    In article <4f0cb59e$0$2084$c3e8da3$>, JF
    Mezei <> wrote:

    > > people seem to think it's going to be a repeat of windows and mac,
    > > where one has 90% share and the other has almost nothing. that's not
    > > likely to happen for a number of reasons.

    >
    > Apple opened the mass market for smart phones. It had a near monopoly.
    > Now, as others are moving in, it is normal for Apple to lose market share.


    no they didn't. five years ago, apple had *zero* market share. none at
    all. smartphones were blackberry, symbian, palm and windows mobile. as
    the iphone and android grew in market share, those declined. symbian is
    dead, winmo is dead, palm/webos is almost dead and blackberry is
    dropping quickly.

    > It is still to early to tell at what point Apple's market share will
    > stabilize.


    people are too fixated on market share. what matters more mind share.

    people *want* iphones and android phones. they don't want blackberries.
    people have blackberries only because the company they work for gives
    them one, not because they picked it over an iphone. people don't want
    windows phone either, so microsoft is going to be paying stores to push
    them.

    it's also not a straight comparison. android is an os that can run on
    anything. at ces, right now, there is a refrigerator with android that
    runs pandora. does that count as an 'android device' in the market
    share tallies?

    > If Apple's ahare goes down too much, it risks losing critical mass at
    > which point, apps will move elsewhere (just like what happened to the
    > Mac in the 1980s). Apple is nowhere near that point now. But what about
    > 3-5 years from now ?


    times are different now. there were no apple stores back then. macs
    were hard to find and when you did, they were expensive and the
    salesperson tried to talk you into buying a pc because the spiffs were
    better.

    today, there are hundreds of apple stores worldwide and they are always
    crowded (too crowded in fact). macs are price competitive with pcs and
    sometimes cheaper. pc makers want intel to cut their prices so they can
    compete with the macbook air. ios devices are selling like crazy.

    > > rim isn't dead *yet* because of the large existing install base but
    > > they are not doing particularly well.

    >
    > RIM is promising a totally new set of phones and OS this year. This is
    > their last chance to revive the company, otherwise they will be
    > relegated to running their proprietary servers to service existing
    > customers (whose phones cannot do any data without those proprietary RIM
    > servers).


    it needs to be spectacular to turn the company around, and based on
    what rim has done in the last few years, something spectacular is very
    unlikely. need i remind you that the playbook *didn't* have native
    email?

    > Nokia is also promising a totally new set of (windows) phones this year.
    > It is also make or break for them. Back in the days of analogue phones,
    > Nokia managed to oust Motorola from a "near monopoly" and it became the
    > dominant player in the world. But Nokia seems to have inept maagement
    > now, so the odds of them succeeding are not great. But there is still a
    > chance.


    true, their chances are non-zero.
     
    nospam, Jan 10, 2012
    #14
  15. Michelle Steiner

    JF Mezei Guest

    Nokia have begun to produces Microsoft phones.

    http://ces.cnet.com/8301-33370_1-57351451/lte-ready-nokia-lumia-900-ace-details-spill-ahead-of-ces/

    http://www.nokia.com/us-en/products/phone/lumia900/


    Lumia 900 for the USA market (with LTE support). This goes to AT&T.

    If Nokia is avble to leverage its worldwide presence with mobile
    networks, it may be able t push this new line of windows phones.

    And it also depends on what sort of ecosystem Nokia/Microsoft will offer
    in terms of apps, music etc. This is where apple still has a huge
    advantage.

    I personally do not wish to see Mirosoft get more than 20% of the
    market. This way, it prevents Microsoft of shoving its "proprietary
    standards" like it did for the web, trying to wreck web sites designed
    to not work unless you run microsoft's browser etc.


    In related news, Google's Motorola has announced it will produce Android
    phones based on Intel x86 chips.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16492156

    Supposedly the "Medfield" chip has good enough power consumption to make
    to to phones. But this will have interesting dynamics for the Android
    market which is almost all Arm based, but now Google will be pushing x86
    based phones. So both architectures will need to have an emulator to run
    software written for the other architecture. This may be the achile's
    heal for Android.
     
    JF Mezei, Jan 11, 2012
    #15
  16. Michelle Steiner

    bigdude Guest

    nospam <> wrote:

    > today, there are hundreds of apple stores worldwide and they are always
    > crowded (too crowded in fact). macs are price competitive with pcs and
    > sometimes cheaper. pc makers want intel to cut their prices so they can
    > compete with the macbook air. ios devices are selling like crazy.


    Yes, I finally made it to an Apple store October last year, it was a big
    one on Central Park. It's all underground, thousands of customers. Was
    awful, got quite claustrophobic! Waiting in the long queues at the tills
    to get my daughter an iPad was only made bearable by the fact that I was
    surrounded by Apple fans.. :)

    --
    bigD
     
    bigdude, Jan 21, 2012
    #16
  17. Michelle Steiner

    bigdude Guest

    salgud <> wrote:

    > On Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:50:58 -0500, JF Mezei wrote:
    >
    > > And again, don't dismiss Microsoft an RIM *yet*.

    >
    > Why not? M$ hasn't had a successful consumer product in 10 years. They've
    > been so busy emulating Apple, which they're not, that they have no identity
    > any more. Their CEO is a natural follower, not a leader.
    >
    > As to RIM, I seriously doubt they have the where-with-all to actually
    > design a competitive smartphone. If they did, they would have done so by
    > now. They just don't get it.
    >


    Lot of young people are getting Blackberries in my town because its
    cheap and because of the free messaging system.
    --
    bigD
     
    bigdude, Jan 21, 2012
    #17
  18. On Sat, 21 Jan 2012 08:19:43 +0200, (bigdude) wrote:

    >Lot of young people are getting Blackberries in my town because its
    >cheap and because of the free messaging system.


    Is it a universal messaging system - free messages to anybody who gets
    texting?

    There are some free messaging services to people who subscribe. One
    comes with IOS. There's at least one other free app for IOS. But I
    can't use them to text my granddaughters.

    I can text my daughter because she has an iPhone. But not her
    daughters, nor anyone in my son's family without paying Verizon
    $10/month.

    --
    "In no part of the constitution is more wisdom to be found,
    than in the clause which confides the question of war or peace
    to the legislature, and not to the executive department."

    - James Madison
     
    Howard Brazee, Jan 21, 2012
    #18
  19. Michelle Steiner

    nospam Guest

    In article <>,
    Jolly Roger <> wrote:

    > > Lot of young people are getting Blackberries in my town because its
    > > cheap and because of the free messaging system.

    >
    > Suckers.


    why are they suckers? because they didn't buy an iphone?

    maybe the blackberry fits their needs better.
     
    nospam, Jan 21, 2012
    #19
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